The AV referendum

So since 3 friends have now asked me about this and I'm clearly seen as some kind of useful political geek I thought I'd write something down for those I've not talked to.

First up, this referendum is important, it's in some ways more important than a general election. We've had the current system for well over a hundred years, you're getting the opportunity to change maybe another hundred years of UK elections, don't mess it up! Ideally you shouldn't just take my or anyone else's word for it. The campaigns have had some pretty blatant lies so get an opposing viewpoint & fact check, fact check, fact check.


The options:
Basically you have a choice between the current system First Past The Post and the Alternative Vote aka Instant Run-Off.

Our current system FPTP:
In FPTP everybody votes once, votes are totalled and the person with the most votes wins.

The new system AV:
You vote once, ordering all the candidates you'd like to vote for by preference (1,2,3, etc) you can pick as many or as few as you like. The votes are then counted as though a series of election's had been run, eliminating the loser in each one.

Round 1 (think of it as the 1st election)
All the 1st picks are counted, if anyone gets over 50% of the vote they win, otherwise the losing candidate is eliminated and another round is run.

Round 2 (Simulating a 2nd election)
All the 1st picks are counted, but people who voted for the loser with their 1st pick now vote for their 2nd pick. The votes are counted and if anyone gets over 50% they win, otherwise the lowest candidate is eliminated and...

Round 3
All the 1st picks are counted, but people who voted for the loser in round 2 and 3 have their votes switched to their next preference.

This continues until either there are 2 candidates left or someone gets more than 50%



Arguments for a Yes vote:
Arguments for a Yes vote:

It removes the need for tactical voting. Currently say UKIP is your favourite party but you know UKIP won't win. If you vote for them your vote will be wasted and let Labour win, thus you compromise and vote Conservative. The problem is that fptp requires voters to guess how everyone else is going to vote. 

It makes MPs 'work harder' & prevents 'safe seats'. This is a bit of a dodgy argument. AV will mean politicians have to appeal to a broader base, is that the same as 'working harder'? I don't really think so.

It will end 'Jobs for Life' I'm very unconvinced by this, it will make more seats marginal. But in die hard Tory & Labour heartlands I'm not sure it'll make much difference.


Arguments for a No vote: 

AV Will help the LibDems. The LibDems not being one of the two biggest parties are most hurt by tactical voting. The LibDems got 9.5% of the seats on 22.1% of the vote so any improvement in the system is bound to help them. 

AV will cost money, this argument is over done. The No website includes the cost of the referendum (which is happening anyway). A different voting system will of course cost more to switch to but given how often we hold elections it's pretty negligible.

AV will result in more hung parliaments, this is simply false.

AV will result in 'blander', 'centrist' politicians. This is essentially saying AV will tend to elect politicians who appeal to a large base but who nobody hates. I'm unconvinced that these are going to be less principled or in any way worse. 

AV is a politicians fix, a fair point there are many better systems. However the choice is FPTP and AV. Since Labour & the Tories are greatly favoured by FPTP, AV is the only option we're being given (it still favours them, just not so much).




My thoughts:

I think the only really valid arguments are from the Yes: AV will remove tactical voting and from the No: AV will help the Lib Dems.

Which is I feel a pretty craven argument from the No camp - 'This voting system may be fairer but we like having a system rigged for our team.' Not to mention that the LibDems have done terribly in the polls down to 10% from 25%, frankly they're going to get stuffed next election under any system.

Whilst I don't think AV is perfect I think it's marginally better than FPTP so I'll vote for it.